Lubricants Market Update July 2026
What's Driving Prices and What It Means for You
You’ve likely noticed lubricant prices moving sharply this spring. We believe you deserve to know why and not just receive another increase letter. Here’s a plain-language summary of what’s happening in the global base oil market and how it affects your business.
What Happened
The conflict in the Middle East that began in late February has hit energy infrastructure across the region. The International Energy Agency has called it the largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets. Key facilities that supply the base oils used in finished lubricants sustained serious damage:
Shell Pearl GTL (Qatar): severe damage with repair estimates of 3-5 years
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BAPCO Sitra refinery (Bahrain): 380,000–405,000 barrels per day affected, with repairs expected to take up to a year
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Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah refineries: 3–4 months to full recovery
In response, major producers including QatarEnergy, Kuwait Petroleum, BAPCO, and Iraq’s Oil Ministry have declared force majeure — legally suspending contracted deliveries. Buyers who counted on those barrels are now competing on the spot market, pushing prices higher worldwide.
Why It Hits Lubricants So Hard
Roughly 20% of the world’s premium (Group III) base oil capacity is now offline, and the Middle East supplied about 44% of U.S. Group III imports. Base oil prices have surged roughly 30% — from about $1,600 to $2,200–$2,300 per metric ton — and lead times for specialty base oils and additives have doubled, from 4–6 weeks to 8–12 weeks.
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As a result, every major manufacturer has announced multiple rounds of price increases this spring:
Announced Increases (Spring 2026)
Up to 15% (Apr 1), up to 25% (April 24), up to 30% (May 18)
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Up to 15% (Apr 15), up to 25% (May 1)
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Up to 12% (Apr 15), up to 30% (May 4)
Manufacturer
Chevron
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Shell
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ExxonMobil
Where Campbell Oil Stands
One clear lesson from this disruption: supply reliability now matters as much as price. Suppliers sourcing base oils produced in North America carry substantially lower supply-chain risk than those dependent on product moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Our partnership with Petro-Canada Lubricants — with North American production — positions our customers well on that front.
We’re monitoring this market daily. When costs move, we’ll tell you what’s changing and why — before it shows up on an invoice.
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ExxonMobil has already announced its next increase — up to 25%, effective June 22. Now is the time to review your usage and ordering plan.